Trade period roundup part 2 – Dawn of the Final Day #AFLTrades

Following up from our roundup of the first week of trade period, here’s a look at the last few days, ahead of a no-doubt frenzied final day.

For a full recap of all movement on an easy to read webpage, check out Draft Guru.

NOTE: We do not use the AFL draft points system to rate players or picks. We instead use our own system that attempts to compare both players and picks directly, using a common currency of “quality-adjusted expected future games output“. Fuller discussions of method and theory are located here and here. Hit us up on Twitter if you’d like to discuss.

Paul Ahern to North Melbourne

ahern-trade

Verdict: GWS cast aside damaged goods for essentially nothing, North get a shot at a recent high draft pick with basically zero downside.

Pearce Hanley to Gold Coast with Port Adelaide involved

hanleytrade1

hanleytrade2

Verdict: Gold Coast overpay for a bloke with a short shelf-life, demonstrating that they will pay a pick premium in the pursuit of established players. Brisbane win big in expected future output.

Port Adelaide move more value into this year’s draft. Contrary to popular perception, looking at the actual productivity of the two draft picks they obtain shows Port don’t really go backwards here unless they tumble a long way down the ladder in 2017.

Jordan Lewis to Melbourne

lewistrade

Verdict: The Demons get a steal as Lewis is traded for the equivalent of pick 84.

Joel Hamling to Fremantle

hamling-trade

Verdict: Fair for a player who has had one great season but not a long track record. The balance of this trade depends on how we view the risk of Hamling failing to live up to his 2016 performance.

Michael Hibberd to Melbourne

hibberdtrade

Verdict: Fair trade, but likely to favour the Demons if Hibberd’s year away from football hasn’t negatively affected him

Dion Prestia to Richmond

prestia-2

Verdict: Just fair, but Richmond’s bet on themselves rising up the ladder doesn’t change the value of their second round pick very much, so a limited upside versus the straight swap of 6 for Prestia.

Toby Nankervis to Richmond

nanktrade

Verdict: Very close to the mark for a developing  ruckman low on the Swans’ depth chart, based on his former draft pick.

Zach Tuohy and Billie Smedts swap between Carlton and Geelong

tuohysmedtstrade

Verdict: The picks are close to a straight swap so Tuohy’s proven output means the risk is all with Carlton and Smedts.

Bonus value assessment content:

How much is O’Meara worth?

Not an actual trade yet, but a discussion of one of the biggest ticket players and most intriguing value propositions.

 

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