Something doesn’t add up to us at the offices of HPN. It’s clear as day that Jordan Lewis is aging, being on the wrong side of 30, but surely he is worth more than what was given in this trade. Lewis made the All Australian team in 2014, the 40 man squad in 2015, has played in four premierships… and is no longer required at the club at which he made his name.
Hawthorn’s slash and burn approach to acquiring Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara this trade period will probably need to be assessed in overall at the conclusion of the exchange period. In the mean time, let’s look at the loss of Jordan Lewis to Melbourne, on a reported three year deal, in isolation.
The HPN formula has assumed Lewis will play out the three years of his contract and continue to exhibit the durability he has done in the past – playing over 22 games a season for each of the last three. That pushes his value up, as does a loading from his 34 Brownlow votes over that time. For a young side with a rapidly developing midfield, Lewis represents a small development opportunity cost but we must assume Melbourne think he is an upgrade on the last midfielder in their regular rotation.
It’s extremely likely that Lewis will decline in some way over the three years, so HPN suggests that the lower end of his value as being closer to his eventual output. HPN posits that Lewis will play around 50 to 60 games for the Dees, at an above average level.
In pure pick terms, this trade values Lewis as being worth the equivalent of pick 84. If Lewis manages just one season for the Demons after this trade, it is likely that Melbourne will end up as winners here.
More importantly, it is very likely that Hawthorn will take a backward step next year with two of their best three midfielders departing the club, setting the Hawks up for a mini-rebuild – if they had the picks. The Hawks have seemingly put all of their eggs in the Mitchell and O’Meara basket, along with that of the 2017 free agency class.
Verdict: Melbourne end up with an absolute steal, and Hawthorn continues to confound during the trade period.
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