Seven trades, innumerable rumours – A recap of the first week of #AFLTrades

In this post HPN looks back at the action that took place in the first week of the AFL trade period. For a full recap of all movement on an easy to read webpage, check out Draft Guru.

NOTE: We do not use the AFL draft points system to rate players or picks. For more information, see the explaination at the bottom of the post.

Cameron McCarthy to Fremantle


Verdict: The trade made values McCarthy as having negative value considering the other assets involved. If McCarthy can regain his form from the first half of 2015, Fremantle will have a great deal on their hands.

Brad Hill to Fremantle


Verdict: Brad Hill is a very polarizing player it seems – more people complained with our rating of Hill than any other rating to date. At just 23, Hill looks to be a solid contributor for the best part of the next decade. HPN rates Fremantle as massive winners here (again).

Pick swap between Brisbane and GWS


Verdict: A nearly perfectly balanced exchange of picks that seemingly gives both clubs what they want.

Jack Steele to St Kilda


Verdict: Both clubs receive something that they will be able to get more use out of than the other club could. St Kilda will give the talented Jack Steele plenty of game time, and GWS can get extra bidding point value out of the pick due to the 20% point discount in bid-matching.

Sam Mitchell to West Coast


Verdict: Did this one actually happen? Did Sam Mitchell really leave the Hawks? A club legend moves west to begin his eventual transition to the coaching box, and both sides are reasonable about the value of him. Perhaps the most reasonable trade of the period involving a player so far.

Tom Mitchell to Hawthorn


Verdict: Hawthorn decided they couldn’t go on without a Mitchell in the middle, and Tom is a massive upgrade to their long term prospects. Hawthorn get an absolute bargain here for the talent young player, giving up only their first round pick for a player likely to produce a lot more value than that pick would have (the pick swap doesn’t matter).

Pick swap between Hawthorn and St Kilda


Verdict: What were Hawthorn thinking here? Hawthorn pay massive overs in a desperate attempt to get a pick in order to facilitate the O’Meara trade. St Kilda downgrade slightly, and get two good chances this year and one very good one next to further strengthen their list.

Free Agents

For free agent movement, HPN has been tweeting out how the formula values each player on the move. If you’ve got any questions about any aspect of the exchange period, hit us up on Twitter at @hurlingpeople.

free agents.PNG

Vickery, as the youngest FA, will likely produce the most going forward, especially in a Hawthorn forward line crying out for a tall target. There’s little doubt that Wells has had the best career of the three, but at 31 it’s unsure how much he will produce going forward. Chris Mayne sits in the middle of the two – a solid forward who contributes in ways not often considered valuable by most standard statistics. As all three were granted the same compensation (a round two pick pick after the club’s own), HPN thinks that the AFL got it right for Vickery and Mayne, and perhaps overcompensated North for Wells.

We’ve got a more detailed post on free agents coming up later today if you want to read more.

IMPORTANT: HPN rates trades based on the formulas outlined in this post. The HPN Draft Pick Trade Value Chart (TVC) is compiled from the actual, real-world output of each player selected to at that pick. The HPN Player Value Formula predicts the future output of every AFL player, based on their performance in the past 3 years, their age and their “eliteness”. We discuss the theory behind valuations of players in this post. Both formulas use the same ‘currency’ of future games to measure value, so the points are completely comparable/exchangeable.

We do not use the AFL points system as it doesn’t provide a way to explicitly value players.

pick values.PNG

The chart above shows the primary difference in our valuations – second round picks have a lot more actual worth because of the output of players drafted there.

Finally, note that HPN is not saying the valuations provided here are the only valid considerations for making a trade. Quite often, the point differential in our assessments tell us useful things about what clubs are thinking, valuing and prioritizing during the exchange period.


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