TRADE: GWS re-position themselves in the draft #AFLTrades

We have our first pick-only swap of the 2016 trade period, and not surprisingly it involves the Giants.  GWS are apparently keen enough on Andrew McGrath and nervous enough of Brisbane picking him or bidding on Will Setterfield that they’ve orchestrated a trade to switch positions with the Lions.

brisgwspickswap.PNG

We’ve shown both the output-based pick valuations of the HPN formula as well as the bidding currency used by the AFL to determine academy matching. As we’ve discussed before, the key difference is that we value the second round of the draft higher because the average output of players drafted there doesn’t drop off very much.

The HPN system values picks on the actual on-field output by the players chosen there. The AFL values picks by the contracts those players sign. We feel that our method of evaluating pick value aligns better with real world outcomes for draft picks.

The trade is nominally fair from either perspective, and very close to parity from the AFL points view. HPN would see the three picks sent to GWS as likely to yield a few extra games in output, but that assumes Brisbane intended to use pick 60, their then-fifth pick, in the open draft. The key win for Brisbane is another pick in the valuable top 20, while GWS leave themselves more likely to select Andrew McGrath, having protected themselves from their first pick being used on Setterfield. Even if Essendon were to bid pick 1 for Setterfield, that leaves GWS an enviable choice between taking McGrath, McCluggage, or Setterfield with their first selection.

GWS now have six picks worth bid-matching points, and forty players in 2017 according to Draft Guru, meaning four free spots in their expanded senior list of 44.

NOTE: Whilst the AFL has seemingly confirmed that the GWS TPP cap will be reduced next year, they have not made any official comments on their list size next season.

In future years this would be an uncomfortable position for them, as clubs will not be able to bring picks to the draft that don’t correspond to list spots. However a transitional rule allows GWS and Gold Coast to retain extra picks for bid matching in the draft corresponding to the ones they traded for last year. That means GWS are able to carry three extra picks into the draft, having acquired picks from Collingwood, Geelong and Adelaide last year.

The upshot is that, currently, GWS should be entitled to bring 7 picks into the draft with value for bid matching. By our current estimates, GWS have Setterfield and Perryman just about covered without pick 2, even assuming bids on the high side of the latest phantom form guide. But if they intend to match high bids for their less-fancied prospects they will be using the what they receive in other pending trades (including Jack Steele, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett and James Stewart):

GWS picks.PNG

Verdict: A relatively fair trade all around.

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