This is the first ACTUAL trade of the 2016 Trade Period. HPN is very excited about this! For more information about our trade formula and draft pick values, read this post.
Last year HPN published a post on a potential Cam McCarthy trade entitled:
Given the trade that occurred today, perhaps we were right with that crass heading.
After allegedly being offered two first round picks last year in exchange for McCarthy, GWS eventually traded the wantaway player for much less. It’s pretty clear that McCarthy is a less valuable prospect than 12 months ago, the trade made today values McCarthy as having negative value considering the other assets involved.
GWS has vastly different targets as a club during the trade period to the 14 non-Academy clubs. Whilst on paper this is a loss for GWS, in actuality it might not see GWS going back much, if at all.
The Giants are rumoured to be very heavily into Andrew McGrath, a potential top 3 pick in the upcoming draft. Trading pick three for seven allows them to have a shot at grabbing McGrath, as well as their top four Academy prospects this year. Contrary to most media reports, the Giants have more than enough points to grab all four, even without the lost value from this trade. HPN has expected most GWS trades to involve future picks as to secure future Academy picks, both in 2017 and beyond.
For Fremantle this trade is a no-brainer. Pick seven is a very good pick, and the last player they chose at this selection won a Rising Star (and then went to GWS). They get only a slightly worse shot at the top end talent of the draft, and another very good selection in the draft to boot. Fremantle may on-trade pick 34 for Shane Kersten, or perhaps include it in the Hill deal. The inclusion of pick 72 seems meaningless at this stage, but Fremantle will have plenty of empty list spots this year.
What confuses us at HPN is the inclusion of pick 34 in this deal. As stated above, HPN assumed that all potentially unused assets this year would be gotten rid of for future value next season in a fire sale at the end of the trade period.
HPN suspects that the deal will have been completed even without this inclusion, as a simple swap of first rounders with McCarthy valued as the difference. However, given GWS’s current success, there appears to be a method in their (apparent) madness.
Verdict: Unfair, but explainable on GWS’s behalf. Fremantle certainly wins their side of this trade.