Earlier in the trade period HPN looked at the value of Zach Tuohy, so we will try to sum it up briefly here: Tuohy should be an upgrade off half back for the Cats, and was one of the Blues best half-dozen in 2016. He is durable and has maybe 100 games of football left in him.
HPN originally considered that Geelong’s 2017 first rounder would be the fairest move for Tuohy, pending their ability to trade it (due to the two first rounders in four years rule). This has since been granted by the AFL.
While this makes up the cornerstone of the final Tuohy trade, there’s a couple of interesting wrinkles that were added that seemingly shift it in Carlton’s favour.
In addition to the future first rounder, Geelong sent the perpetually ready-to-break-out Billie Smedts to Carlton in exchange for Carlton’s 2017 second round pick. Smedts suffers from a similar valuation issue as O’Meara – he’s been injured so much that it’s hard to work out what he’s really worth.
Take a look at this paragraph from a 2016 article on Smedts about how he just broke his leg for a second time:
“Smedts has had little chance to play continuous football, having broken his leg in 2014, broken his collarbone in 2015 and then had surgery to reconstruct his shoulder at the beginning of the season.”
If Smedts can return to his 2013 form and stop being broken, then a second round pick might be fair value. However we just don’t know which parts of Smedts are original and which are $6 Million Dollar Man-style rebuilds at this point.
There’s not a lot of gap between Geelong’s 1st pick and Carlton’s 2nd pick next year, unless the Cats fall down the ladder or Carlton climb substantially. On 2016 positions, the downgrade for Geelong is just 8 picks in the draft.
The hope for Carlton is that, if fit, Smedts can replace most of Tuohy’s contribution off half back (meaning a downgrade on that position rather than a total loss) and also do so for longer into the future. They also likely hope that they can use the Geelong 1st rounder to trade for Marchbank. But if Smedts keeps getting injured, this will likely be a bad deal for Carlton, considering the extra second rounder that they had to give up.
VERDICT: The risk is all on Carlton’s side.