Earlier today Bryce Gibbs stated his intention to move to Adelaide, potentially ending the former number 1 pick’s time at Carlton. Gibbs remains a very good player, however at 27 probably doesn’t want to stick around Carlton for a full rebuild. In 2014 Gibbs committed to the Blues until the end of the 2019 season, a long time in football.
As Gibbs has such a long time remaining on his contract, it is likely that Adelaide will have to pay overs to get Carlton to give up on Gibbs. In a perfect world, this is what a straight trade between Gibbs and the Crows first round pick would look like:
This trade on its own would be pretty fairly balanced, however it is likely Carlton would want more back. A possible solution to this would be for Adelaide to send their 2017 second round pick as well, in exchange for the Blues 2017 4th rounder:
This both stays within our fair trade cap of 30% either way and provides Carlton with more value than they give up.
The ultimate reality about what Carlton will get for Gibbs might be reliant on how willing they are to force Gibbs to play for them next year if a trade falls through.
Verdict: Both are fair trades.