Here’s the movements in team ratings this week:
GWS, Geelong and Adelaide now comprise the top 3 after separating themselves from fellow top 4 aspirants Sydney, North Melbourne and West Coast. Sydney in particular take a hit after being outclassed in the midfield (losing the inside 50s 61-52) and in defence (conceding scores from 56% of defensive inside-50s.
Here’s the full set of numbers:
Essendon are really bad. According to our adjusted ratings, Essendon currently sit as the fourth worst team, relative to the competition that season, since 1998:
The only teams to find themselves further adrift were GWS in 2012 and 2013, and Melbourne in 2013. This year’s edition of Brisbane falls in as the 13th worst team of the era, and Gold Coast are currently 18th worst.
At the other end of the spectrum, GWS are sitting as the 9th best team since 1998, and Geelong as the 11th:
Adelaide are 25th and the Dogs are 34th. Of the eight teams with a rating at the end of the season than GWS enjoy right now, all have made grand finals and four of the eight have won them. West Coast in 2015 (who also lost a grand final) sit tenth on the list, just ahead of current Geelong.
The distinction between those high-rating teams that lost a Grand Final and those who won is seemingly the degree of balance across the categories (Off, Def and Mid). The five highly ranked teams that lost a Grand Final (St Kilda 2009, Collingwood 2011, Hawthorn 2012, Geelong 2008 and West Coast 2015) all had one statistical area in which they were significantly worse than the others. The four teams that won the flag with a rating this high had all three categories over 105%. This could
That bodes well for both GWS and Geelong right now, as their indicators are all above that marginal 105% line while every team below them is significantly weaker in one of the key indicators. While Geelong sit close to 105% in offensive potency, GWS sit above 110% across the board, which we feel is enough to call them the premiership favourites of the moment.