If Sydney do slightly better in 2016 than they did this year, then the Bulldogs have given Talia away for less than nothing. (Feel free to steal that example of a proper if-then statement, Damo)
Sydney value in: 1200 points (Michael Talia 815 points, pick 69 – 385 points
Western Bulldogs value in: 400 points (2016 pick ~68 points)
Verdict: Very unfair trade, Sydney get back 3 points of value for every point given up.
After the “talking to his brother” scandal, the Bulldogs have turned hard on Michael Talia and are turfing him for potentially less than nothing, making him a free hit at filling a dire need in the Swans’ future plans. Specifically, the nominal value of the Swans 2016 pick is 68, but that could easy fall below the 69 the Dogs traded to Sydney via either a better Swans performance (making a prelim final), or a couple of free agent compensation picks pushing the pick down the order. Unless Sydney slide down the ladder, the Bulldogs would probably have been better off simply delisting him.
Now, there’s a strong chance that Michael Talia is not a good player and he may never take a regular spot at the Swans, but they are desperate for a key position defender with any sort of experience between the ages of 20 and 30, and Talia fits that bill at no cost.
Talia goes into the mix with Aliir Allir and Xavier Richards for the key defender positions soon to be vacated by Ted Richards (33 in January) and Heath Grundy (30 in June). He fills a gaping hole in the Swans list profile, with the only other candidates being Sam Reid who is probably needed up forward with Goodes’ retirement, or mid-sized defenders like Rampe and Laidler. Spare a thought also for Alex Johnson, a 23-year-old who hasn’t played since the 2012 grand final due to an ACL injury and subsequent infection complications. He won’t play again before 2017, if ever.
Talia has played 9, 3 and 14 games over the last three years (an average of 8.7), and turned 22 in February. He got a Brownlow vote once. Based on his record so far, we’d therefore project him to play about another 81 games in his career, making his fair value around pick 37. Talia reaching that projection would be a very good result for Sydney.