TRADE: How Hawthorn dropped their Jaegerbomb #AFLTrades

So how did we get here? This whole exchange period is a fascinating exercise in exchange values. Hawthorn had two tasks – accumulate and commit resources, and convert them to what Gold Coast wanted. In doing this, they undertook several trades, each of which was lopsided against them but got closer to what they needed.

Stepping back, Hawthorn traded pick 14 for Tom Mitchell and then more than an entire draft for O’Meara. Hawthorn spent the trade period converting their second (36), third (54) and fourth (72) round picks, Brad Hill (who netted pick 23), and next year’s first round pick (~14), into pick 10 and the future GWS second rounder (~pick 33).

Trades that made this happen:

The Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis trades did not materially improve Hawthorn’s position but presumably helped from a list management perspective.

As such, they go into the upcoming National Draft with their first pick at 88, and next year their first pick is their own second round selection (~32). They’ve also obviously shed Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell with an indecent looking urgency.

We’ve discussed O’Meara’s value before, settling on a discount on his initial draft pick as a valuation. Here’s how the final trade looks, bearing in mind the three previous trades all went substantially against Hawthorn in value terms:

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Verdict: Pretty fair in isolation, but this trade cannot be viewed in isolation. Hawthorn took resource-conversion hits in trades with Fremantle, St Kilda and Carlton to make this happen.

 

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TRADE: Carlton’s annual GWS offcut jamboree #AFLTrades

Carlton have developed a well-documented habit for making multiple-for-one swaps with GWS for depth players. This time around, they haven’t had to give up much to get what they wanted.

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Last year, Carlton took advantage of GWS’ depth with a swap of four players (Plowman, Lamb, Sumner and Phillips) with a 2016 pick giving GWS pick 8 and 28 last year, which were used on their Academy kids Hopper and Kennedy. All four saw decent senior footy, and Carlton will likely win that deal in the long run.

In 2014, they obtained Kristian Jaksch, Mark Whiley and pick 19 for pick 7. We called that a bargain but so far it’s a bit of a wash. Jaksch (7 games) is developing in the reserves if at all, as is Carlton’s pick 19 (Boekhorst). Whiley is among a group of uncontracted Blues players whose futures are unclear. Still, Carlton got three players for one and if, for example, Jaksch develops into a senior KPD the Blues will then be well in front. GWS used pick 7 on Paul Ahern who has been unlucky with injury – this helps illustrate the perils of putting all the eggs in the “quality” basket.

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This time, Carlton are targeting two slightly younger players than the previous cache, with more future upside. Marchbank and Pickett are each being valued as still worth top-ten picks, due to having been recently drafted with picks 4 and 6. They’re being let go for a lot less than that. Marchbank particularly showed a lot of promise in 2016, and would have likely fought with Tomlinson and Buntine for a defence spot.

GWS’ future second round pick (~33) was immediately on-traded for more 2016 picks from the dregs of Hawthorn’s remaining stocks, which replaced the picks Carlton just gave GWS.

GWS, for their part, continue shedding unwanted players and pick up about 500 more academy bid-matching points, or roughly pick 27 in bid-matching terms.

Verdict: Carlton make big gains in isolation on this trade, GWS lose more players cheaply and gain academy bidding currency.

 

TRADE: Hawthorn pay overs to get the second round pick that they needed #AFLTrades

In order to get the O’Meara deal finalised, Hawthorn needed to get an extra second round pick. Carlton, who need all the AFL level talent they can get, were more than happy to step in and take advantage of someone desperately offloading assets. They sent the newly acquired GWS future round pick for Hawthorn’s remaining later picks in this draft.

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The sum of pick 48, 66 and 70 is likely to yield Carlton more than GWS’ second pick next year would.

Verdict: Carlton take Hawthorn for a ride, but Hawthorn get what they need.

TRADE: Dirty deeds Dunn dirt cheap #AFLTrades

If there’s one thing Lynden Dunn is not, it is elite. Except, maybe, for his torp. He is a serviceable, experienced defender with six career Brownlow votes who has spent most of his career desperately trying to help hold the line at a club prone to conceding big scores.

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The Pies have a desperate need for any mature defender that can salvage. Dunn has never relied on agility so he should age well, or at least hold the line in terms of ability. He is 192cm, 29 years old, has played a variety of defensive roles, and also has something of a thumping kick-out.

Most of the games he has missed was due to being dropped for the majority of this year. Dunn is a flexible utility but Melbourne’s development pushed him out of every available role. Vince’s move down back and the emergence of Oscar McDonald, Wagner, Frost and Hunt left Dunn without a spot but being pushed to the VFL shouldn’t be a problem in the Pies’ backline next year.

Collingwood’s key and mid-sized defensive stocks look badly depleted when we consider the following:

  • Jack Frost has been traded to Brisbane.
  • Jonathon Marsh has requested a trade to Western Australia.
  • Nathan Brown has left for St Kilda as a free agent.
  • Ben Reid has struggled to get his body right.
  • Alan Toovey has retired.
  • Lachlan Keeffe returns after his two-year anti-doping infraction but remains a huge unknown in terms of form and fitness.

Dunn should play every week at a vaguely AFL-standard level in whatever role is needed down back, and that’s what the Pies need.

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Dunn has been valued by this trade as being virtually worthless, meaning that Collingwood might have a steal on their hands if they can get even 10 games out of him.

Verdict: A Collingwood win.

TRADE: Jack Frost set to warm up in Brisbane #AFLTrades

Jack Frost clearly meets a need for Brisbane; notably that of an AFL level player with a mature body. Frost showed some extremely solid signs before regressing slightly in the past couple of years.

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Frost should be able to fill the role left absent by Daniel Merrett, that of an enforcer in the backline to take the pressure of the other young KPD stocks.

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Frost might not set the world on fire, but he should fill a role for the Lions, and right now that should be enough.

Verdict: A fair trade, but Brisbane gets the slightly better end of it. ERROR: HPN missed the extra pick going to Brisbane earlier. In light of that, the Lions have done really well out of this deal, and the Pies leave us scratching our heads.