The Final HPN Consensus Phantom Draft #AFL #AFLDraft

With the main event almost upon us, the last phantom drafts have been released into the wide world and we are able to release the final HPN Consensus Phantom Draft of 2015.

At the end of the day, the heavy hitters who have dropped late mock drafts are in near total agreement on the first 15 picks or so, varying only on their predictions of academy bidding strategies.

The popular consensus at the top can be seen in our look at the most common club taking each player, with majority consensus on which club will take every player in the top 20 except for the wildcard of Jade Gresham, who is equally projected for St Kilda, Carlton and Richmond.

Without further ado:

phantom v3

Phantom Draft Pool

Please click through and read their work:

Risers

Since the last CPD, there has been significant movement for some players. Clayton Oliver continues to bolt with nearly all the newest phantom drafts going with the new consensus that Melbourne will select him at 4.

  • Aaron Francis to pick 6 (up 3);
  • Clayton Oliver to pick 7 (up 3, 7 since 5/11);
  • Jade Gresham to pick 16 (up 4, 5 since 5/11);
  • Daniel Rioli to pick 22 (up 4, 7 since 5/11);
  • Tom Cole to pick 27 (up 3);
  • Harry Himmelberg to pick 29 (up 3);
  • David Cunningham to pick 34 (up 9, 6 since 5/11);
  • Sam Skinner to pick 35 (up 3, 7 since since 5/11);
  • Mason Redman to pick 36 (up 5);
  • Alex Morgan to pick 39 (up 6); and
  • Brandon White to pick 40 (up 7).

Sliders

On the other side of the coin, certain players have continued their fall down the predicted draft order, most prominently Charlie Curnow.

There has also been a steady decline in the anticipated bids for Brisbane’s two academy prospects, which is good news for the Lions and might actually leave them a live selection around pick 41 (we haven’t incorporated this into our consensus phantom above, but the 41st ranked player is Jesse Glass-McCasker).

  • Charlie Curnow to pick 10 (down 3, 4 since 5/11);
  • Eric Hipwood to pick 12 (down 3);
  • Ben Keays to pick 18 (down 3);
  • Rhys Mathieson to pick 21 (down 8);
  • Luke Partington to pick 31 (down 3);
  • Bailey Rice to pick 32 (down 5); and
  • Kieran Lovell to pick 37 (down 3).

The biggest slider of all has been Greg Clark, whose consensus prospects have tumbled from 35 all the way to 50 (down 15) since November 5th.

BONUS PHANTOM – PICKS BY MOST COMMON SELECTION

After some comments that we’ve received, we’ve decided to do an alternative phantom – one which is chosen by the most common selection (mode) at each draft position.

Where a player has already been allocated (for example Parish is the mode selection at 6 and 7), we’ve gone to the second most popular, breaking ties with the higher consensus ranking. In some cases such as Josh Dunkley this has left a player only chosen once.

We’ll examine this for accuracy alongside all the others after the draft is done.

most common position

Who will Geelong pick?

Of all the clubs in the 2015 draft, Geelong has been the hardest to predict, due to their late first draft choice coming in the 55 to 60 range. So far, the drafters have selected the following players going to Geelong:

Brayden Hackett, Callum Moore, Dale Hinkley, David Cunningham, Davin Ferreira, Gregory Clark, Jack Firns, James Parsons, Jordan Dawson, Jordan Lockyer, Joshua Schoenfeld, Kieran Lovell, Kurt Mutimer, Lachlan Walker, Matthew Allen, Nick Coughlan, Ryan Gardner, Sam Menagola, Sam Skinner, Thomas Jak, Tom Doedee, Tyrone Leonardis, Will Sexton, William Snelling.

Some are seen as sliders from the second round, others are unique selections with only one phantom drafter picking them anywhere at all.

Who knows what is actually going to happen there? Does one of the phantom drafters have some special inside knowledge? We’ll report back on this and more after the draft.

The Wrap Up

HPN will be back later this week to evaulate the success of the CPD, and to calculate which of our phantom drafters was the most accurate in 2015.

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