Walker and Jansen to Brisbane – one of them is “steak knives” #afltrades

The swap of both players for a single pick that will be no higher than 37 suggests Geelong do not value one or both of these players very highly.

Brisbane value in: 1480 points (Jansen 741 points, Walker 739 points)
Geelong value in: 800 points (Brisbnae’s 2016 third round pick, ~38)
Verdict: Unfair trade. Brisbane get back 1.85 points for every point they let go.

Josh Walker has played 33 games but probably sits a long way back in Geelong’s ideal depth chart. With off-season moves at Geelong, he would next year be in competition as a forward or ruck with Henderson, Smith, Clark, Stanley, Vardy, and maybe Kersten. Walker, aged 23, has played an average of 8.7 games a year for the last three years, suggesting a player who is on the fringes of Geelong’s thinking and who is not yet proven capable of producing high output in future.

Jansen has basically no exposed form and has been on the list for two years, so we think he’s still worth a moderate discount on the pick 36 he was taken at in 2013 (we rate him at pick 44, ie pick 36 with 90% of its value). If we assume Walker has some value to Geelong, Jansen is being rated as correspondingly valueless. He requested a trade for opportunities, and we’d suggest Geelong are obliging him by sending him as “steak knives” in this deal which would be fair for Walker alone.

Geelong are being generous from a weak position. Jensen is an out of contract draftee, Walker is someone that Geelong will feel they can let go for little value since he isn’t in their fit best 22. The best possible value for Brisbane’s 3rd rounder in 2016 is pick 37, if Brisbane get the wooden spoon and there’s no free agency compensation picks.

On the flip side, even if Jansen is considered valueless, Brisbane are not paying excessively for Walker alone. Brisbane are securing another tall human who knows how football works, which is something they desperately need. In 2015, just one player taller than 190cm kicked ten goals for Brisbane. Whatever the question marks over Walker’s quality, he’s an upgrade on the -nobody- currently holding his job at Brisbane.

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