Harley Rides Into The Sunset #AFLTrades

Harley Bennell’s Player Value – 1584 points

Gold Coast value in = 1850 points – 1020 points (Pick 16) and 830 points (Pick 35).

Fremantle value in = 2534 points – 1584 points (Harley Bennell) and 950 points (pick 22).

Verdict – Unfair trade (Fremantle gains 684 points of pick and player value, or 1.37 points back for every point given up).


Determining a winner and loser with this trade might be the hardest task of the offseason, and it all comes down to the mercurial talent of Harley Bennell. We don’t need to rehash Bennell tumultuous last 12 months in full, but it’s worth noting that there was no chance that he would be back on the Gold Coast next season. As such, it was certainly a buyer’s market in the race for Bennell, and that’s reflected in the price that Fremantle ended up paying for him.

In making this trade, Bennell is value as being worth around 900 points, or pick 27, assuming the trade was fair to both sides. If Bennell lives up to his potential, and can stay out of trouble, this is an absolute bargain for him. Bennell is a recent pick 2, and has shown good form in his five years in the league. At only 23 years old, Bennell certainly has his best footy ahead of him with his ceiling as a player only barely in sight. He is one of the rare players in the competition that can take a game over and nearly win it off his own back, if he is in form. He also improves an already deadly midfield set-up for Fremantle, and probably makes them the best young midfield in the competition (with apologies to GWS).

It’s unknown if Gold Coast could have held out for more here, but it’s fair to say that they were stuck between a rock and a hard place. Any compensation for a player who has a foot out the door is good compensation, and GC has a better chance to replace his output than if he had been sent through the draft.


Best/Worst players chosen at each draft position

Best:

Pick 16: Frazer Gehrig (260 games), Scott Thompson (285 games), Adem Yze (271 games)

Pick 22: Scott Selwood (135 games), Mark Seaby (120 games), Winston Abraham (110 games)

Pick 35: Mark Chaffey (166 games), Sam Reid (102 games), Jamie Bennell (85 games)

Worst:

Pick 16: Paddy Steinfort, Josh Willoughby (0 games), Ben Walton (16 games)

Pick 22: Mark Jones, Jesse Wells (0 games), Gerrick Weedon (1 game)

Pick 35: Stephen Owen, Scott Robinson (0 games), Brent Hall (1 game)

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