The Curious Case of Patrick Dangerfield

Patrick Dangerfield’s Player Value – 2859 points

Adelaide value in = 2715.75. Pick 9 (1270 points), Pick 28 (890 points) and Dean Gore (555.75 points).

Geelong value in = 3429. Dangerfield (2859 points) and Pick 50 (670 points).

Verdict – Fair trade, just (Geelong gains 713 points of pick and player value, or 1.26 points back for every point given up).


When Patrick Dangerfield announced his decision to leave West Lakes and move west of Melbourne, most thought that Adelaide would struggle to get much compensation in return, let alone fair compensation. But, in a positive sign for the week to come, the two teams worked together to achieve something resembling fair market value for one of the best players in the competition.

Make no mistake, by any metric Dangerfield is in the absolute cream of the competition. He rarely misses a game (averaging 21.7 games per season) and rates highly in measures of quality, with 65 Brownlow votes and two All-Australian selections in the last three years. Being aged 25 at the end of this year, we expect him to have about 60% of his career value remaining to him. With all those factors, he works out to being worth well above pick 1 (2350 points) in a completely fair market.

With Dangerfield entering restricted free agency, there were significant restrictions in how a trade could be constructed, but Geelong and Adelaide have a working relationship probably unrivalled by any other two clubs in the league, sort of cut from the same cloth. While not a win-win for both sides, neither side probably loses much ground.

With picks 9 and 28, as well as recent draftee Dean Gore, Adelaide has three shots at replenishing their playing list. While isn’t likely that Adelaide will find a player like Dangerfield at either draft position, it is possible, and at worst they should be able to find a couple of solid contributors.

Best/Worst players chosen at each draft position

Best:

Pick 9: Chad Cornes (255 games), Mark McVeigh (232 games), David Armitage (128 games)

Pick 28: Brent Guerra (255 games), Jason Johnson (184 games), Mitch Duncan (11 games)

Pick 50: Will Schofield (131 games), Matthew Whelan (150 games), Mark Merenda (101 games)

Worst:

Pick 9: Luke Molan (0 games), Ben Wilson (6 games), David Trotter (7 games)

Pick 28: Chad Gibson (0 games), Shawn Lewfatt (3 games), Marlon Motlop (5 games)

Pick 50: Brett Higgins, Luke McCormick, Dylan Main, Iszac Thompson (0 games)

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